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Tag:Bubble
Posted on: March 11, 2011 7:30 am
 

Who Should Bubble Teams Root Against?

Hello, college basketball fans!

It's the time of year when if you are a bubble team, you not only have to worry about winning your tournament games (assuming you are still in your tournament), you also have to worry about other teams winning or losing around you. So if you want to make the NCAA's, who should you root for today and the rest of the weekend? Here's a guide.

These are the teams I think bubble teams should root against or hope lose:

ACC: Virginia Tech and Clemson

Boston College of course is also a bubble team but Boston College has the better profile outside of the fact that Clemson beat BC at home this year (if BC wins today, their neutral site win will trump Clemson's home win). Boston College also swept Virginia Tech this year. If Clemson loses today, it almost certainly knocks Clemson out but I can't say the same about Boston College.

As for Virginia Tech, the win over Duke is great but I think they would be a long shot if they don't beat Florida State today. If you are a Hokie, the worst case scenario for you would be a loss and a Clemson win. For sure, FSU, Clemson, and BC get in ahead of you. Can the ACC get six teams in? I doubt it.

Now if Clemson and Virginia Tech both lose today, both seem like longshots. If you had to choose one, who would you take? They tied in conference play. Clemson won the head to head but it was at home and Virginia Tech didn't have the chance to play in Blacksburg. On the other hand, Virginia Tech beat Duke but Clemson had to play at Duke. If Clemson had a chance at Duke at home, would they have won? Duke hasn't beaten any NCAA caliber conference teams on the road this year.

Big Ten: Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State

Similar situation with Illinois and Michigan. Illinois's overall profile is better right now (and they did beat Michigan in their only meeting although it was in Champaign). I think the Illini have a better chance at surviving a loss than Michigan does. Then again, Michigan swept both Michigan State and Penn State and unless one of them pulls an upset today (and possibly another one Saturday), I have a hard time picking either the Spartans or Nittany Lions ahead of the Wolverines.

I think Penn State has the worst chances of making the NCAA's if they lose today (Michigan State probably has a better chance). If you're not from Michigan State and Penn State, you certainly don't want either of them winning.

I think Illinois is safe right now but the total nightmare situation for Illinois would be if they lose to Michigan and Michigan State and Penn State also win today. All of a sudden six Big Ten teams have 10 wins while Illinois has only 9. All six of those teams beat Illinois this year. Is seven Big Ten teams a possibility? As an Illini fan, I don't want to have to find out.

Big 12: Colorado

Colorado may have punched their ticket with a win over Kansas State in Kansas City (their third win over the Wildcats this year). But a win over Colorado and of course the Buffaloes will be dancing. There is no shame losing to Kansas but maybe if Colorado loses by about 30 they could be in trouble.

C-USA: Memphis, UTEP

Both need to make the final to have any chance of dancing. That's still not including UAB, who were stunned in the first round but still won the regular season and will likely have an RPI in the 30's (it was 28 before the game according to CBS Sports). I doubt this league will not have an at large berth as it is hard to pass over UAB.

As for UAB, here's your nightmare scenario. Memphis makes the final and loses and loses to UTEP (essentially a road loss and a reasonable one). If you compare Memphis and UAB straight up, UAB was two games better than Memphis in conference but Memphis swept UAB and would have made it to the final, beating the team that knocked off UAB. Memphis also beat Gonzaga at Spokane (not a true road game but close). If you had to take one team in that scenario, you probably take Memphis. If you are UAB, you probably would rather Memphis win the whole thing to guarantee you will be the best at large candidate in the conference (assuming C-USA gets an at large team at all).

As for UTEP, I thought the only chance they had for getting in as at large would be to lose to UAB in the final (they would win a head to head over Memphis since they beat the Tigers and would have made it farther in the tournament). UTEP certainly can't lose today and if they don't win the tournament at least UAB has to be ahead of them in the pecking order.

Ivy: Princeton

Don't laugh. Harvard would have a slight chance of getting an at large bid. At the very least, how do you like your at large chances if you are either Boston College or Colorado, two teams that lost to Harvard this year? Harvard probably doesn't get in as at large but they certainly can take BC and/or Colorado with them to the NIT. It would be hard to justify either team over Harvard (who has Boston College beaten this year?)

Pac-10: USC

USC has almost no chance to get in if they lose to Arizona but I think they would have a shot if they beat the Wildcats. Of course in that scenario, the Trojans would be in the final, would have already knocked off the top seed, and No. 2 seed UCLA has already lost. They would have a chance to actually win the whole thing and guarantee they will be in.

Of course, you want absolutely no part of Oregon winning it all.

SEC: Alabama?

If you still believe RPI means something, you clearly want Georgia to beat Alabama in the head to head match. Maybe a loss by Georgia would knock them out of bubble consideration but I imagine Alabama would have a harder time getting in with a loss than Georgia would. On the flip side, maybe an Alabama win takes Georgia out but doesn't put Alabama in and neither team makes it if Kentucky wins today and beats Alabama on Saturday.

Tennessee plays Florida and a loss probably doesn't hurt them too much. What probably would hurt them would be if Alabama wins today. Then you have to take the Crimson Tide over the Vols (who are just .500 in the SEC and who lost to Alabama in Knoxville). They also don't want to see Georgia make the final either.

It's a little too early to call, but the SEC probably has the best chance among BCS conferences of a party crasher to win the tournament and steal another at large bid. Last year, Mississippi State went to overtime against Kentucky, who had pretty much had a No. 1 seed locked up (luckily John Calipari played to win and did someone a favor in keeping MSU out last year). In 2008 (the year of the tornado in Atlanta), Georgia stole a bid. Hopefully, Kentucky, Florida, and/or Vanderbilt take care of business because the last thing any bubble team wants is a Mississippi school winning the tournament. Heck, no one outside of Mississippi wants to see either of them win and I'm not sure anyone in Mississippi even cares about basketball.

WAC: Anyone other than Utah State

Some people think Utah State is a shaky at large candidate. Well they are currently 16th in the RPI and have lost only 3 games (two to teams currently in the top 5 of the RPI). I can't believe for a second the Aggies would miss the Dance, if someone else wins the WAC then some other bubble will pop, not Utah State's.

So you now know who to cheer for, bubble teams! Get your popcorn ready and start cheering for the big boys, your Ohio State's, your Duke's and North Carolina's, etc.

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble
 
Posted on: March 14, 2010 12:25 pm
 

Final Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/14/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 14, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota*
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga

Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
SEC: Mississippi State

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # At Large Locks: 33
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 1
As of Now: 5 teams in contention. If Mississippi State wins, they are the one.

RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 14, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40)
Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Conf RPI (5!)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (81), 4-6 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Tournament Result: Lost A-10 SF game to Temple

Outlook:

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (111), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota

Tournament Result: Lost Big 10 SF game to Ohio State (double OT)

Outlook:

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (78), Non Conf SOS (110), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (208), Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Only way to be 100% sure is to win
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 13, 2010 8:54 am
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch - 3/13/10 (Upated RPI #'s)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 13, 2010 AM

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier*, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue*, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State*, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso*
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt*, Tennessee*
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga

Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
A-10: Rhode Island
Big 10: Minnesota, Illinois
Pac 10: Washington
SEC: Mississippi State

Party Crashers Still Alive for Automatic Bid
ACC: Miami, NC State
C-USA: Houston
WAC: New Mexico State

Total # Locks: 35 (not counting Big East, Big 12, and MWC champs)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 29
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 5
As of Now: 7 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 13, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (39), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (100), Non Conf SOS (342!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: RPI (38), Non Conf RPI (5!)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (85), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (69), Non Conf RPI (123), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7), Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. The RPI did crack the top 70 although still a very questionable RPI (and a loss to Ohio State probably drops it below 70 although I imagine not by much). Minnesota winning throws a wrench into things as the closer the two get in profile, you have to give the edge to Minnesota.

Minnesota (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Butler, Wisconsin), Four Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (74), Bad Losses: at Indiana, Home to Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Purdue.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: With a lot of teams falling out, Minnesota is making a last ditch case to get in. They clearly have the top wins and even better a win at Illinois. In many ways, they are just like Illinois, lousy RPI numbers but good wins. Those bottom feeder Big 10 teams really hurt the Big 10 in RPI, not only Illinois and Minnesota but Ohio State and Michigan State (not even in the top 25). In conference, Illinois did finish a game ahead and had a tougher Big 10 RPI/SOS. Here’s a couple of scenarios I didn’t think were possible at the start of the week: 1) Minnesota would be the 5th Big 10 team instead of Illinois, 2) The Big 10 could actually get SIX teams in the NCAA’s. Hey, why not? Should Illinois and Minnesota play in the Big 10 final, can you say only the winner gets in?

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

No bubble teams.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Losses: Home to USC and Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The way things are going for Washington, it looks like they should be in. Certainly Stanford’s upset helped them win but prevented the Huskies from getting a quality win. Of course they can remove all doubt by winning over Cal.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths:  Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (107), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.

Outlook: Florida had beaten Mississippi State in the regular season already but in Gainesville. You would think MSU’s win in the SEC would be worth more. Still, considering Mississippi State had a bye helped. In addition, while Florida beat Michigan State and Florida State, Mississippi State has no top 25 wins. I’m not convinced that MSU is an automatic over Florida. The worst thing that happened Friday to the Gators was them losing to Mississippi State. The second worst thing probably was Minnesota beating Michigan State. It put Minnesota into bubble consideration and took away one of Florida’s Top 25 wins, leaving them just Tennessee.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), Non Conf SOS (209), no top 25 wins, just one top 50 win, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses

Outlook: See Florida. While I don’t think it’s a done deal Mississippi State will be considered ahead of Florida, I guarantee they will be considered ahead of Ole Miss or there will be a lot of bad blood in that state between the two schools this upcoming year.

Other

None

Schmolik



Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 13, 2010 8:13 am
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch - 3/13/10 - Early Morning

Hello, college basketball fans!

I don't have updated RPI numbers and a lot of games were played yesterday so I will give you the short summary of my current bubble situation.

I feel San Diego State's win over New Mexico and Georgia Tech's win over Maryland put both of them in the field. Missisippi's loss in my (although not Jerry Palm's) mind removes them from bubble consideration. Meanwhile, many teams won yesterday to improve their cases which I feel knock out Wichita State and Kent State from at large consideration. My latest bubble has 7 teams competiting for a maximum of 5 spots (which could shrink if UTEP or Utah State loses or if somehow Miami or NC State wins the ACC). As a huge fan of one of these seven teams, I now have to root for the party crashers to lose. Let me warn Houston, New Mexico State, Miami, and NC State in advance, if you get in, I'm sending you to Spokane. I'm saying it now. I will do whatever I can do to send you there. If you're going to crash the party, you better be happy to go there. You're not getting a trip to California or Florida or New Orleans or some place nice. Then again, at least it's not Boise. Chances are also good that if you are the last team or last two teams I will put you in Spokane as well.

Teams that are still alive in conference tournaments:
Rhode Island
Washington
Mississippi State
Minnesota
Illinois

Teams done, waiting:
Florida
Virginia Tech




Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 12, 2010 6:17 pm
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (Updated 3/12/10 6pm)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010 6pm

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 35 (Big East and Big 12 Champs guaranteed from the “locks”)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 12, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 6-4 in last 10 (after today’s loss), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI: 52, Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (148), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (104), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. If a fourth at large comes from the A-10, you would expect the Rams to be that team.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (89), 5-5 in last 10 games

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament)
Weaknesses: RPI (75), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up after beating Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Non Conf RPI (38), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (125), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths:  Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (106), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (70), Non Conf SOS (211), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I’ll leave them in for now even though their only strength is their sweep over Ole Miss, which I feel removed themselves from consideration after losing to Tennessee because their profile probably improves if they beat Florida. If they lose to Florida, they will likely fall out.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (86), Non Conf SOS (288!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Kent State (In because of automatic bid)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (26), 8-2 in last 10 games, regular season MAC champion, Bubble Win: UAB (if they are still a bubble team)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (56), No top 25 wins, one top 50 win, Bad losses: Home vs Green Bay, Home vs Bowling Green

Tournament Road: Lost to Ohio in MAC QF’s (1st game played).
Outlook: I’m running out of teams here so I added them. They did win the regular season MAC title. The only team in the top 54 (as of Friday) that is not either in automatically, a lock, or a bubble team is UAB, who Kent State beat. I thought they suffered a bad loss. Ohio’s RPI was over 100 but just barely. It didn’t hurt their overall RPI as much as I thought. I think they are a long shot but a few more chokers and maybe they can still make it in.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik



Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 12, 2010 6:30 am
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (Updated 3/12/10 - AM)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 37
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Early morning Friday Update: UNLV added to locks

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. I think they should at least be in the discussion now but beating Rhode Island will clearly establish them as the #4 team in the A-10.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 11, 2010 11:41 pm
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/11/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 11, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 36
Minimum # At Large Locks: 26
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 8
As of Now: 12 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (202), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected. Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 9, 2010 9:01 pm
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 9, 2010 9pm ET

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
Horizon: Butler
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 24

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 9, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (340!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (although a loss to Wake Forest may not hurt that much, a loss to Miami would)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them, especially if they lose their ACC opener to North Carolina.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (4!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (102), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 256 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (52), Conf RPI (90)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

Marquette (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games, two top 25 wins (vs Xavier, Georgetown), Bubble Win: at Seton Hall, South Florida

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (115), Non Conf SOS (203), Bubble Loss: Home vs Notre Dame, Bad Losses: Home vs NC State, at DePaul

Should Be In If: They beat St. John’s in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The RPI is a big negative but their big wins, hot finish, and performance in conference (including win over Louisville) should be enough assuming they don’t blow it to St. John’s.

Notre Dame (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (38), Three Top 25 wins (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, at Georgetown), Bubble Wins (at Marquette, Sweep of South Florida)

Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (97), Non Conf SOS (225), Bubble Loss: at Seton Hall, Bad Loss: Home to Loyola Marymount

Should Be In If: They beat Seton Hall in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Very similar to Marquette, a loss to Seton Hall would be their 2nd this year and would have Seton Hall pass Notre Dame in the pecking order. That being said, don’t be surprised to see nine from the Big East if Seton Hall wins.

Seton Hall (Out)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40), Bubble Win: Notre Dame

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (200), Bubble Loss: at South Florida

Should Be In If: They make the Big East SF, beating Providence, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Providence.

Outlook: They will get consideration if they beat Providence but will be near the bottom of the bubble unless they beat Notre Dame. Another problem is South Florida, who has a similar profile and beat Seton Hall earlier. It could be a race for the two in this tournament as to who gets farther.

South Florida (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Pitt, at Georgetown), Bubble Win: Seton Hall

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Swept by Notre Dame, Bad Loss: Home to Central Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Georgetown.

Outlook: A very hard sell, beating Syracuse in the Big East QF may not be enough. They should get consideration head to head vs Seton Hall if they are close (but Seton Hall would get head to head over Notre Dame in a potential three way logjam between SH, ND, and USF if the Pirates beat the Irish.

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (120), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

Memphis (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (36), 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins: Sweep of UAB

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (90), No Top 25 wins, Bad Loss: at SMU

Should Be In If: They Make Conf USA Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They win one Conf USA game

Outlook: Memphis should not be passed over in favor of UAB even if UAB beats them in the Conf USA SF since Memphis has beaten them twice already. That would be the only scenario I can consider any other team (other than UTEP) passing them in the Conf USA pecking order. They probably want to at least make the SF though and losing to anyone below UAB would be pretty bad as well. Another nightmare is if someone other than themselves or UTEP wins the tournament as UTEP would get an at large and Memphis will have to hope C-USA gets three bids.

UAB (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Non Conf RPI (18)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (59), 5-5 in last 10 games: Bubble Losses: Swept by Memphis, only one top 50 win (Butler)

Should Be In If: To feel safe, the only way would be to win it all
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the conference final

Outlook: Even a win over Memphis may not be enough to pass them in the pecking order (still 2-1 head to head) although making the final could add to the possibility of three bids in C-USA.

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (191), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (105), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins one MWC game.

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected (assuming they win one MWC game). Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Arizona State (In)

Strengths: 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (53), Conf RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (55), No Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: The Pac 10 is weak and teams from the Pac 10 are really going to have to impress to make it. They have little chance at quality wins outside of beating Cal in the final (and then they would be in automatically). I can’t guarantee the winner of the potential SF between them and Washington will be in, but I can guarantee the loser won’t be. And if Arizona State loses before the final to anyone else, I can’t imagine them getting in either.

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins 1st SEC game vs Auburn

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (69), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (222), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (35)

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Conf RPI (65), Non Conf SOS (142), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Conf RPI (33), 10-0 in last 10 games!, Bubble Win: Wichita State

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57)

Should Be In If: Avoids a bad loss in the WAC tournament
Should Be On the Bubble If: Takes a bad loss in the WAC tournament.

Outlook: Pretty close to a lock but win one game in the WAC to be entirely sure. At least they won’t have to compete with St. Mary’s for an at large (see San Diego State).

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (85), SOS (101), Non Conf SOS (285!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big East: Cincinnati
Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
 
 
 
 
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