Tag:Duke
Posted on: March 15, 2013 7:39 pm
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Schmolik 64 Update (3/15/13) - 7pm

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the latest Schmolik 64 Update. Less than 48 hours remain until Selection Sunday!

This bracket considers results as of 7:40pm ET March 15, 2013. RPI data is as of this morning.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Indiana (27-5) vs. (16) Play In Game B Winner
(8) Memphis (28-4) vs. (9) Villanova (19-13)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) St. Louis (25-6) vs. (12) Play In Game D Winner
(4) Marquette (23-8) vs. (13) Valparaiso (25-7) *

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Illinois (21-12) vs. (11) Colorado (21-11)
(3) Florida (24-6) vs. (14) New Mexico State (21-10)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Notre Dame (25-8) vs. (10) Temple (23-8)
(2) Miami (24-6) vs. (15) Harvard (18-9) *

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Duke (27-4) vs. (16) LIU-Brooklyn (20-13)*
(8) Missouri (23-9) vs. (9) San Diego State (20-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Syracuse (25-8) vs. (12) Play In Game C Winner
(4) Kansas State (25-6) vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin (22-3)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Butler (24-7) vs. (11) Oregon (24-8)
(3) Ohio State (23-7) vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast (17-8)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) UNLV (23-8) vs. (10) Iowa State (22-10)
(2) Louisville (27-5) vs. (15) Vermont (21-10)

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(1) Gonzaga (30-2) vs. (16) Play In Game A Winner
(8) Colorado State (23-7) vs. (9) Minnesota (20-12)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)
 
(5) VCU (24-7) vs. (12) Bucknell (27-5) *
(4) Arizona (25-6) vs. (13) South Dakota State (22-9) *

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) North Carolina (21-9) vs. (11) Boise State (19-10)
(3) Michigan (25-7) vs. (14) Akron (23-6)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(7) Creighton (27-7)* vs. (10) Cincinnati (22-11)
(2) Kansas (27-5) vs. (15) Long Beach State (17-12)

SOUTH REGIONAL (North Texas, TX Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Georgetown (25-5) vs. (16) Western Kentucky (19-15) *
(8) NC State (24-9) vs. (9) Belmont (24-6) *

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) Wisconsin (22-10) vs. (12) La Salle (21-9)
(4) Oklahoma State (22-7) vs. (13) Davidson (25-7) *

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) UCLA (24-8) vs. (11) Oklahoma (20-11)
(3) New Mexico (27-5) vs. (14) Montana (21-6)

 Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Pittsburgh (24-8) vs. (10) California (20-11)
(2) Michigan State (23-7) vs. (15) Iona (20-13)

FIRST FOUR (All Games in Dayton, OH)

Play In Game A: Tue. March 19: (West 16) James Madison (20-14) vs. Liberty (12-20)
Play In Game B: Wed, March 20: (Midwest 16) Southern (18-9) vs. Morgan State (16-14)

Play In Game C: Tue. March 19: (East 12): St. Mary's (26-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (23-8)
Play In Game D: Wed. March 20: (Midwest 12): Middle Tennessee State (28-5) vs. Wichita State (26-8)

Missed: Kentucky (48), Tennessee (55), Mississippi (56), Massachusetts (58), Alabama (63), Baylor (66), Virginia (68)

By Conference:
Big East: 8, Big Ten: 7, Atlantic 10: 5, Big 12: 5, Pacific 12: 5, Mountain West: 5, ACC: 4, C-USA, MVC, SEC, Sun Belt, WCC: 2, One Bid: 19

Follow me on Twitter: @Schmolik64! 
Compare me to the Bracket Matrix (www.bracketmatrix,com).
And as always, give me some feedback! 
Category: NCAAB
Posted on: March 12, 2013 9:10 am
 

Schmolik 64 Update (3/12/13)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated to reflect Monday night's results. Records are as of March 11, 2013.
* Clinched automatic bid

Regionals are listed in order of the top seed (first listed is overall No. 1 seed)

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Indiana (26-5) vs. (16) Play In Game B winner 
(8) UCLA (19-13) vs. (9) Villanova (18-12)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) St. Louis (24-6) vs. (12) Play In Game D winner
(4) Marquette (23-7) vs. (13) Akron (23-6)

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Colorado State (22-7) vs. (11) Wichita State (26-8)
(3) Florida (24-6) vs. (14) South Dakota State (21-9)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Illinois (20-11) vs. (10) St. Mary's (26-6)
(2) Miami (24-6) vs. (15) Harvard (18-9)*

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC Thur/Sat March 21-23)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Duke (27-4) vs. (16) Norfolk State (21-10)
(8) Memphis (27-4) vs. (9) Missouri (22-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (25-5)  
(4) Kansas State (24-6) vs. (13) Bucknell (26-5)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) VCU (24-7) vs. (11) Boise State (19-9)
(3) Ohio State (23-7) vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast (22-10)*   

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) UNLV (22-8) vs. (10) Oklahoma (20-10)
(2) Louisville (26-5) vs. (15) Vermont (21-10)   

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Salt Lake City, UT (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(1) Gonzaga (30-2)* vs. (16) Play In Game A winner
(8) Minnesota (20-11) vs. (9) San Diego State (19-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Syracuse (23-8) vs. (12) Play In Game C winner
(4) Arizona (24-6) vs. (13) Davidson (25-7) * 

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) Butler (23-7) vs. (11) Cincinnati (21-10)
(3) Michigan (24-6) vs. (14) Valparaiso (24-7)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 21-23)

(7) Creighton (27-7)* vs. (10) Belmont (24-6)*
(2) Kansas (26-5) vs. (15) Long Beach State (16-12)

SOUTH REGIONAL (North Texas, TX Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Georgetown (24-5) vs. (16) Western Kentucky (19-15)*
(8) NC State (22-9) vs. (9) California (20-10)

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) Wisconsin (21-10) vs. (12) LaSalle (21-8)
(4) Oklahoma State (23-7) vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin (22-3)

Salt Lake City, UT (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) North Carolina (21-9) vs. (11) Colorado (20-10)
(3) New Mexico (26-5) vs. (14) Montana (21-6)

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Notre Dame (23-8) vs. (10) Temple (23-8)
(2) Michigan State (23-7) vs. (15) Iona (20-13) *

Final Four: Midwest (1) vs. South (4), East (2) vs. West (3)

FIRST FOUR (All games in Dayton, OH)

Automatic Bid Games:

Game A: Tue. March 19: James Madison (20-14)* vs. Liberty (12-20)*

Game B: Wed. March 20: Long Island (19-13) vs. Southern (18-9)

Last Four Teams In: 

Game C: Tue. March 19: Southern Mississippi (21-8) vs. Tennessee (19-11)

Game D: Wed. March 20: Middle Tennessee (28-5) vs. Iowa State (21-10) 

Last teams out: Kentucky (50), Oregon (54), Mississippi (56), Massachusetts (58), Baylor (62), Alabama (63). RPI Data courtesy of CBS Sports.com.

Bids By Conference:

Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
A-10: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 3
Pac-12: 4
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
Sun Belt: 2
One Bid: 20

Analysis:

I chose Indiana as the No. 1 overall seed. They won the Big Ten (who many see as the best conference this season) regular season championship outright on the last day of the regular season. They swept both Michigan State and Michigan this season. Indiana has a very impressive eight victories over teams ranked in the RPI Top 25. 

I was very impressed with Duke's convincing win at Chapel Hill, defeating a North Carolina team that had previously won six consecutive games. Duke is undefeated this season with Ryan Kelly playing, a fact the Selection Committee has to consider when choosing No. 1 seeds. Duke has the overall No. 1 RPI and has defeated six teams in theRPI Top 25 (not counting No. 26 Virginia Commonwealth and No. 28 North Carolina State).

Gonzaga is the third overall No. 1 seed. They have only lost two games this season, one on a buzzer beater at Butler, and their WCC Championship should put them in good shape to land a No. 1 seed regardless of what happens later this week.

For the final No. 1 seed, I went with Georgetown. The Hoyas, Louisville and Marquette are all tied for the Big East regular season title. Georgetown has victories over the other two (they won the only game played against Louisville at home). Georgetown and Louisville have a great chance to get a No. 1 seed if either can win the Big East Conference tournament in Madison Square Garden. This will be the last Big East tournament before the breakup of the football playing and non football playing schools. I find that disappointing, but I have written several articles expressing disapproval of some of the Big East's moves.

My No. 2 seeds include Miami, Michigan State, Louisville and Kansas. Michigan State's early season victory over Kansas in the Champions Classic put the Spartans ahead of the Jayhawks for the right to play in Arlington (the NCAA lists the location as [North Texas]). It also makes some sense to put the only No. 2 seed west of the Mississippi in the West Regional. Since Louisville was my highest ranked No. 2 seed, they get to play in Washington (placing them in Indianapolis with Indiana would, in my opinion, make that too strong a regional).

New Mexico still has the No. 2 overall RPI yet is ranked much lower in polls. I think the Mountain West Conference is underrated. They have three teams ranked in the RPITop 25 and five total in the RPI Top 50. I found from another website (I forgot which one) that New Mexico is a little closer to Dallas than Los Angeles so I placed them in Dallas for their regional (I also wanted to put all four of the top four Big Ten teams in separate regionals).

Sunday night, Middle Tennessee State (MTSU) was upset in the Sun Belt semifinals. This added the Blue Raiders to the at large pool. Middle Tennessee State's RPI (even after their loss) was No. 29. That would be a very high RPI to exclude from the NCAA Tournament. 

In addition, MTSU's non conference RPI is ranked No, 18 and their non conference strength of schedule is No. 12. The Selection Committee has stressed in the past that you can control your non conference schedule and their general policy is to reward those who play tough none conference schedules .

However, Middle Tennessee State has no wins over a team in the RPI Top 50 and only one vs. the RPI Top 100 (Mississippi, No. 56). 

I personally think the RPI number should not be overlooked or thrown out. Remember that the RPI is used to determine quality wins so I think it's unfair to credit teams for beating teams that have high RPI's but not credit teams for having a high RPI. Southern Mississippi (RPI No. 35) also falls in this category although they can play themselves into (or out of) the NCAA Tournament this week.

The SEC has, in my opinion, the most bubble teams. I consider Kentucky (RPI No. 50), Tennessee (RPI No. 55), Mississippi (RPI No. 56) and Alabama (RPI No. 62) on the bubble. This is a case where the teams ranked below 50 can claim a victory over Kentucky as a quality win but Kentucky cannot. Kentucky should be rewarded for being in the Top 50. I think all four of these teams need to win at least one game (Tennessee needs to win at least two) to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances.

I do not like the fact that the Missouri Valley Conference and West Coast Conference play their championship games too early. I would like to see their games closer to Selection Sunday. I feel Wichita State and St. Mary's (if they lose to Gonzaga) have strong enough profiles to make the NCAA Tournament.

But I have seen many MVC teams fall out of contention during Championship Week. St. Mary's also has been on the wrong side of the bubble a couple of times recently as well. I wonder if they become out of sight, out of mind while team who play closer to Selection Sunday have a chance to make a statement closer to when the Selection Committee decides who is in or out. Last year, I feel Drexel also was hurt by the layoff last season. I think the MVC should take Conference USA's CBS spot on Saturday (Memphis, UCF, Houston, and SMU will all leave after this season).

Baylor and Virginia have great wins (Baylor over Kansas and Virginia over Duke) but I felt their overall bodies of work didn't make them deserving. Both teams were hurt by high RPI's (Baylor at No. 62 and Virginia at No. 67). Virginia has also beaten North Carolina (RPI No. 19) and has two other wins vs. the RPI Top 50). They also have a humiliating loss to Old Dominion (RPI No. 316) and six other losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100. Their non conference schedule was ranked No. 303. Baylor finished just 9-9 overall in the Big 12 with four of those nine wins over teams ranked below 200. Their record of 17-13 is not impressive in my opinion.

Oregon did not make the field. They have good wins over Arizona and at both UCLA and UNLV). They were also hurt by a low RPI (No. 54), a horrible non conference schedule (No. 254) and head to head sweeps by both Colorado and California.'

Finally missing the field is the defending national champions, Kentucky. I don't think there was anything bad about their resume. Their RPI (No. 50) paled in comparison to Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss. While they split the regular season with Tennessee, Tennessee's victory without Nerlens Noel was more recent and more convincing. 

One final comment. I dislike the misnomer that teams should be judged more on their play on the road vs. their record at home. They say no teams play true home games in the NCAA Tournament. But if no teams play home games, no teams play road games either. Maybe they should judge neutral site games more but there are too few to make a difference. I don't think winning on the road should allow you to lose at home. I also don't feel a few good wins make up for bad losses. I like to look at the whole "body of work".

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports.com's bracket and others at the Bracket Project (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/)
Category: NCAAB
Posted on: March 11, 2013 7:57 pm
 

Schmolik 64 Update (3/11/13)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the Championship Week edition of the Schmolik 64!

This is who I feel should make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today. Records are as of March 10, 2013.
* Clinched automatic bid

Regionals are listed in order of the top seed (first listed is overall No. 1 seed)

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Indiana (26-5) vs. (16) Play In Game B winner 
(8) UCLA (19-13) vs. (9) Villanova (18-12)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) St. Louis (24-6) vs. (12) Middle Tennessee (28-5)
(4) Marquette (23-7) vs. (13) Akron (23-6)

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Colorado State (22-7) vs. (11) Wichita State (26-8)
(3) Florida (24-6) vs. (14) South Dakota State (20-9)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Illinois (20-11) vs. (10) St. Mary's (26-5)
(2) Miami (24-6) vs. (15) Harvard (18-9)*

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC Thur/Sat March 21-23)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Duke (27-4) vs. (16) Norfolk State (21-10)
(8) Memphis (27-4) vs. (9) Missouri (22-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. (12) LaSalle (21-8)
(4) Kansas State (24-6) vs. (13) Bucknell (26-5)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) VCU (24-7) vs. (11) Boise State (19-9)
(3) Ohio State (23-7) vs. (14) Valparaiso (24-7)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) UNLV (22-8) vs. (10) Oklahoma (20-10)
(2) Louisville (26-5) vs. (15) Long Beach State (16-12)

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Salt Lake City, UT (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(1) Gonzaga (29-2) vs. (16) Play In Game A winner
(8) Minnesota (20-11) vs. (9) San Diego State (19-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Syracuse (23-8) vs. (12) Play In Game C winner
(4) Arizona (24-6) vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin (22-3)

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) Butler (23-7) vs. (11) Cincinnati (21-10)
(3) Michigan (24-6) vs. (14) Davidson (24-7)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 21-23)

(7) Creighton (27-7)* vs. (10) Belmont (24-6)*
(2) Kansas (26-5) vs. (15) Montana (21-6)

SOUTH REGIONAL (North Texas, TX Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Georgetown (24-5) vs. (16) Vermont (21-10)
(8) NC State (22-9) vs. (9) California (20-10)

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) Wisconsin (21-10) vs. (12) Play in Game D winner
(4) Oklahoma State (23-7) vs. (13) Louisiana Tech (25-5)

Salt Lake City, UT (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) North Carolina (21-9) vs. (11) Colorado (20-10)
(3) New Mexico (26-5) vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast (22-10)*

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Notre Dame (23-8) vs. (10) Temple (23-8)
(2) Michigan State (23-7) vs. (15) Iona (19-13)

Final Four: Midwest (1) vs. South (4), East (2) vs. West (3)

FIRST FOUR (All games in Dayton, OH)

Automatic Bid Games:

Game A: Tue. March 19: Northeastern (20-11) vs. Liberty (12-20)*

Game B: Wed. March 20: Long Island (19-13) vs. Southern (18-9)

Last Four Teams In: 

Game C: Tue. March 19: Iowa State (21-10) vs. Tennessee (19-11)

Game D: Wed. March 20: Kentucky (21-10) vs. Southern Mississippi (21-8)

Last teams out: Oregon (54), Mississippi (56), Massachusetts (58), Baylor (61), Alabama (62). RPI Data courtesy of CBS Sports.com.

Bids By Conference:

Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
A-10: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 4
Pac-12: 4
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
One Bid: 20

Analysis to follow.

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports.com's bracket and others at the Bracket Project (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/)



Category: NCAAB
Posted on: March 4, 2013 8:46 pm
 

Schmolik 64 Update (3/4/13)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the latest update for the 2013 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season, I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (records as of Sunday, March 3, 2013). After the list, I will give some reasons why certain teams were chosen or not chosen and why they were seeded where they were.

Since in many low major to mid major conferences regular season play has concluded, I am seeding a complete 68 team bracket for the first time this season.

Dates:

Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 21-23, Fri/Sun March 22-24

Regionals: Thur/Sat March 28-30, Fri/Sun March 29-31

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(1) Indiana (25-4) vs. (16) Play In Game C Winner

(8) Notre Dame (22-7) vs. (9) California (20-9)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(5) St. Louis (23-5) vs. (12) St. Mary's (25-5)

(4) Kansas State (23-5) vs. (13) Akron (22-5)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(6) Minnesota (20-9) vs. (11) Temple (21-8)

(3) Florida (23-5) vs. (14) Valparaiso (23-7)  

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat

(7) Illinois (20-9) vs. (10) San Diego State (18-8)

(2) Louisville (24-5) vs. (15) Robert Morris (22-9)

SOUTH REGIONAL (North Texas, TX - Fri/Sun)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat

(1) Miami (23-5) vs. (16) Play In Game A winner

(8) Oklahoma (19-9) vs. (9) Oregon (23-6)

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(5) Butler (21-7) vs. (12) Play In Game D winner

(4) Syracuse (22-7) vs. (13) Louisiana Tech (25-3)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(6) UNLV (21-7) vs. (11) Cincinnati (20-9)

(3) Michigan (23-5) vs. (14) Davidson (22-7)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(7) UCLA (22-7) vs. (10) Wichita State (24-7)

(2) Kansas (25-4) vs. (15) Montana (18-6)

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA - Thur/Sat)

Salt Lake City, UT - Thur/Sat

(1) Gonzaga (28-2) vs. (16) Long Beach State (15-11)

(8) Colorado State (20-7) vs. (9) Missouri (21-8)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat

(5) North Carolina (20-8) vs. (12) Play In Game B winner

(4) Arizona (23-6) vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin (20-3)

Salt Lake City, UT - Thur/Sat

(6) Wisconsin (20-9) vs. (11) La Salle (20-7)

(3) New Mexico (25-4) vs. (14) Stony Brook (22-6)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(7) NC State (21-8) vs. (10) Belmont (22-6)

(2) Georgetown (23-4) vs. (15) Princeton (15-9)

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC - Thur/Sat)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(1) Duke (25-4) vs. (16) Mercer (19-10)

(8) Creighton (24-7) vs. (9) Pittsburgh (23-7)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat

(5) Oklahoma State (22-6) vs. (12) Boise State (18-8)

(4) Ohio State (21-7) vs. (13) Bucknell (24-5)

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(6) Virginia Commonwealth (23-6) vs. (11) Middle Tennessee (27-4)

(3) Marquette (21-7) vs. (14) South Dakota State (19-9)

Auburn Hills. MI - Thur/Sat

(7) Memphis (25-4) vs. (10) Colorado (19-9)

(2) Michigan State (21-7) vs. (15) Niagara (18-12)

Final Four Matchups: Midwest Regional Winner vs. South Regional Winner, West Regional Winner vs. East Regional Winner

FIRST FOUR (Dayton, OH)

Tue. March 19

Game A (South No. 16 seed): Norfolk State (19-10) vs. Charleston Southern (14-11). Winner plays No. 1 seed Miami in Lexington, KY

Game B (West No. 12 seed): Villanova (17-12) vs. Southern Mississippi (20-7). Winner plays No. 5 seed North Carolina in San Jose, CA

Wed. March 20

Game C (Midwest No. 16 seed): Northeastern (19-11) vs. Southern (18-9). Winner plays No. 1 seed Indiana in Dayton, OH

Game D (South No. 12 seed): Tennessee (17-11) vs. Virginia (20-9). Winner plays No. 5 seed Butler in Austin, TX

Bids By Conference

Big East: 8 (1 First Four)

Big Ten: 7

A-10: 5 

MWC: 5

Pac-12: 5

ACC: 5 (1 First Four)

Big 12: 4

SEC: 3 (1 First Four)

MVC: 2

WCC: 2

C-USA: 2 (1 First Four)

Remaining Bids: 20 

Analysis

As always, RPI numbers are courtesy of CBS Sports.com.

Congratulations to Gonzaga for being ranked No. 1 in both the Associated Press and USA Today polls today.

However, they are only ranked ninth in the RPI. The only other conference rival ranked in the RPI Top 50 is St. Mary's. Gonzaga has only three wins vs. the RPI Top 25, with the highest being No. 18 Kansas State. Meanwhile, Indiana has seven wins vs. the RPI Top 25, the most of any team. That is why they are the No. 1 overall seed in this bracket.

That being said, you have to give credit for Gonzaga this season. They have lost just two games in a season in which no other team has lost fewer than four games. Gonzaga still may have to win the WCC Tournament to maintain their No. 1 seed. There are plenty of teams in other conferences ready to take Gonzaga's spot if Gonzaga falls.

Despite losing to Virginia, Duke still has the overall No. 1 RPI ranking and a claim to a No. 1 seed. They beat Miami and Louisville this season.

Finally, Miami wins the final No. 1 seed. Georgetown and Kansas both lead their conferences. But I felt Georgetown's non conference schedule (ranked No. 187) hurt their chances. Miami currently leads the ACC by two games over Duke and defeated them by a large margin. The Hurricanes also beat Michigan State in the ACC / Big Ten Challenge. As for Kansas, their loss to TCU really hurt their chances. 

New Mexico is a very interesting case. They clinched the Mountain West Conference's regular season championship. They are ranked second in overall RPI and first in conference RPI. But they are hurt by only three RPI Top 25 wins. Another candidate for a No. 2 seed is Florida. They currently have just one RPI Top 25 win. I felt Michigan State and Louisville were stronger No. 2 seeds than Florida and New Mexico. 

Near the bottom of the bracket, it was hard to overlook Southern Mississippi's RPI (No. 34). Virginia earned their spot with a win over RPI No. 1 ranked Duke. Villanova has wins over Louisville, Marquette, and Syracuse.

As for the SEC, they have four teams ranked between No. 51 and No. 60. Of these four teams, only Tennessee has a win over Florida. They've also beaten Kentucky and split with Alabama. The Volunteers were swept by Mississippi, but Mississippi's resume was hurt badly by a loss to Mississippi State (ranked No. 226).

Kentucky (RPI No. 51, the highest RPI to not receive a bid) is hurt by head to head losses to both Alabama and Tennessee (they lost to Tennessee by 30 points). They will also be judged more in their last few games without [Nerlens Noel], who is out for the season. The Wildcats have a big chance to make noise this Saturday at home against Florida.

Arkansas also has wins over Florida and Kentucky, but an RPI of 80 is too low for consideration. So is Iowa (No. 86), even though they may finish at .500 in the Big Ten.

With so many bubble teams, the SEC Tournament looks to be big in who gets in from the SEC. 

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at [Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix].

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or teams are in should be out, let me hear from you!

 

 

 

 

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana
 
Posted on: March 4, 2013 8:39 pm
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Posted on: February 22, 2013 4:36 pm
 

Schmolik 64 Update (2/22/13)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the second update for the 2013 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season, I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (Records as of Thur. Feb. 21, 2012).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one bid conferences, in which usually only the conference champion goes from those conferences. Similar to last year, I will reserve two No. 12 seed lines for the "First Four".

You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules, which prevent the actual last four from making the field).

I know there are 68 teams now but if I had my way there would still be just 64 teams and when I started the Schmolik 64 there were just 64 teams. So, that is why I still call it the "Schmolik 64".

Here's the bracket update for Feb. 22, 2012.

Dates:

Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 21-23, Fri/Sun March 22-24

Regionals: Thur/Sat March 28-30, Fri/Sun March 29-31

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(1) Indiana (24-3) vs. (16)

(8) St. Louis (20-5) vs. (9) California (17-9)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat 

(5) Colorado State (19-5) vs. (12) First Four Game A Winner

(4) Marquette (21-6) vs. (13)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(6) NC State (19-7) vs. (11) Temple (18-8)

(3) Georgetown (20-4) vs. (14)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat 

(7) Minnesota (18-9) vs. (10) Belmont (19-6)

(2) Florida (21-4) vs. (15)

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA - Thur/Sat)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(1) Michigan State (21-5)  vs. (16)

(8) North Carolina (17-8) vs. (9) Wichita State (23-5) 

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(5) Kansas State (20-5)  vs. (12) Villanova (16-10)

(4) New Mexico (22-4) vs. (13)

Salt Lake City, Utah - Thur/Sat

(6) Ohio State (19-7) vs. (11) Cincinnati (19-8) 

(3) Arizona (22-4) vs. (14)

Salt Lake City, Utah - Thur/Sat

(7) San Diego State (17-7) vs. (10) Iowa State (18-8)

(2) Gonzaga (25-2) vs. (15)

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC- Thur/Sat)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat 

(1) Miami  (22-3) vs. (16)

(8) Notre Dame (21-6) vs. (9) Colorado (18-8)

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(5) Oklahoma State (19-6) vs. (12) First Four Game B Winner

(4) Butler (21-5) vs. (13)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(6) Oklahoma (17-8) vs. (11) Creighton (22-6)

(3) Louisville (21-5) vs. (14)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(7) Memphis (23-3) vs. (10) Oregon (21-6) 

(2) Michigan (21-4)  vs. (15)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Arlington, TX - Fri/Sun)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(1) Duke (23-3) vs. (16)

(8) Pittsburgh (20-7) vs. (9) Missouri (19-7)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat

(5) UNLV (19-7) vs. (12) La Salle (18-7)

(4) Wisconsin (19-8)  vs. (13)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(6) Illinois (19-8) vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State (24-4) 

(3) Kansas (22-4) vs. (14)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(7) VCU (21-6)  vs. (10) UCLA (19-7)

(2) Syracuse (22-4)  vs. (15)

Final Four: Midwest vs, West, East vs. South

First Four (Dayton, OH):

Game A: Tue. March 19: Southern Miss (19-6) vs. Charlotte (18-7) , Winner is East #12 seed, plays Colorado State in San Jose. 

Game B: Wed. March 20: Boise State (15-8) vs. St. Mary's (22-5)  - Winner is Midwest #12 seed, plays Oklahoma State in Austin.

By conference:

Big East (8)

Big Ten (7)

A-10 (6)

Big 12 (5)

MWC (5)

Pac-12 (5)

ACC (4)

SEC (2)

MVC (2)

C-USA (2)

WCC (2)

OVC, Sun Belt (1 each)

Remaining Automatics: 18

Party Crashers/Additional At Large: 0

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at [Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix].

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or teams are in should be out, let me hear from you!
Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 11, 2013 8:31 pm
 

Schmolik 64 Update (2/11/13)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the first update for the 2013 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season, I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (Records as of Sun. Feb. 10, 2012).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one bid conferences, in which usually only the conference champion goes from those conferences. Similar to last year, I will reserve two No. 12 seed lines for the "First Four".

You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules, which prevent the actual last four from making the field).

I know there are 68 teams now but if I had my way there would still be just 64 teams and when I started the Schmolik 64 there were just 64 teams. So, that is why I still call it the "Schmolik 64".

Here's the bracket update for Feb. 11, 2012.

Dates:

Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 21-23, Fri/Sun March 22-24

Regionals: Thur/Sat March 28-30, Fri/Sun March 29-31

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(1) Indiana (21-3) vs. (16)

(8) La Salle (16-6) vs. (9) UCLA (18-6)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(5) Pittsburgh (20-5) vs. (12) First Four Game A Winner

(4) Kansas State (18-4) vs. (13)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(6) NC State (17-7) vs. (11) Temple (16-7)

(3) Florida (19-3) vs. (14)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(7) Illinois (16-8) vs. (10) Indiana State (15-8)

(2) Syracuse (20-3) vs. (15)

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA - Thur/Sat)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(1) Michigan (20-3) vs. (16)

(8) San Diego State (16-5) vs. (9) Memphis (20-3)

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(5) Oklahoma State (17-5) vs. (12) St. Louis (18-5)

(4) Marquette (21-6) vs. (13)

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(6) Minnesota (17-7) vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State (22-4)

(3) New Mexico (20-4) vs. (14)

Salt Lake City, Utah - Thur/Sat

(7) Oregon (19-5) vs. (10) North Carolina (15-7)

(2) Gonzaga (22-2) vs. (15)

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC- Thur/Sat)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(1) Duke (21-2) vs. (16)

(8) Cincinnati (18-6) vs. (9) Colorado (16-7)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat

(5) Wisconsin (17-7) vs. (12) First Four Game B Winner

(4) Butler (19-4) vs. (13)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat

(6) Oklahoma (15-7) vs. (11) Belmont (18-5)

(3) Louisville (19-5) vs. (14)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(7) UNLV (17-6) vs. (10) Missouri (17-6)

(2) Michigan State (19-4) vs. (15)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Arlington, TX - Fri/Sun)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat

(1) Miami (19-3) vs. (16)

(8) VCU (19-5) vs. (9) Iowa State (16-7)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat

(5) Georgetown 17-4) vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (21-3)

(4) Ohio State (17-6) vs. (13)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(6) Notre Dame (19-5) vs. (11) Creighton (20-5)

(3) Kansas (19-4) vs. (14)

Salt Lake City, Utah - Thur/Sat

(7) Colorado State (17-4) vs. (10) Kentucky (17-6)

(2) Arizona (20-3) vs. (15)

Final Four: Midwest vs, West, East vs. South

First Four (Dayton, OH):

Game A: Wed. March 20: Wichita State (20-5) vs. Mississippi (18-5), Winner is Midwest #12 seed, plays Pittsburgh in Kansas City.

Game B: Tue. March 19: Villanova (14-9) vs. Baylor (14-8) - Winner is East #12 seed, plays Wisconsin in San Jose.

By conference:

Big East (8)

Big Ten (7)

Big 12 (6)

A-10 (5)

ACC (4)

MWC (4)

Pac-12 (4)

SEC (4)

MVC (3)

C-USA, WCC, OVC, Sun Belt, WAC (1 each)

Remaining Automatics: 17

Party Crashers/Additional At Large: 1

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at [Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.]

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or teams are in should be out, let me hear from you!
Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 27, 2012 7:36 pm
Edited on: February 27, 2012 7:46 pm
 

2012 Schmolik 64 Update (2/27/12)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the second update for the 2012 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season, I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (Records as of Sun. Feb. 26, 2012).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one bid conferences in which usually only the conference champion goes from those conferences. Similar to last year, I will reserve two No. 12 seed lines for the "First Four".You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules which prevent the actual last four from making the field).

Here's the bracket update for Feb. 27, 2012.

Dates:
Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 15-17, Fri/Sun March 16-18
Regionals: Thur/Sat March 22-24, Fri/Sun March 23-25

SOUTH REGIONAL (Atlanta, GA - Fri/Sun)

Louisville, KY - Thur/Sat

(1) Kentucky (28-1) vs (16)
(8) Kansas State (19-9) vs. (9) Memphis (21-8)

Nashville, TN - Fri/Sun

(5) Florida State (19-9) vs. (12) First Four: Texas (18-11) vs. Seton Hall (19-10)
(4) Wisconsin (21-8) vs. (13)

Albuquerque, NM - Thur/Sat

(6) Gonzaga (23-5) vs. (11) Washington (20-8)
(3) Baylor (23-5) vs. (14)

Columbus, OH - Fri/Sun

(7) Creighton (25-5) vs. (10) St. Louis (21-6)
(2) Marquette (24-5) vs. (15)

WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix, AZ - Thur/Sat)

Columbus, OH - Fri/Sun

(1) Michigan State (23-5) vs. (16)
(8) Alabama (19-9) vs. (9) Southern Miss (21-6)

Albuquerque, NM - Thur/Sat

(5) Notre Dame (20-9) vs. (12) First Four: BYU (22-7) vs. Miami (17-10)
(4) UNLV (22-6) vs. (13)

Nashville, TN - Fri/Sun

(6) St. Mary's (23-5) vs. (11) Colorado State (16-10)
(3) Georgetown (20-6) vs. (14)

Greensboro, NC - Fri/Sun

(7) Vanderbilt (20-9) vs. (10) Northwestern (17-11)
(2) North Carolina (25-4) vs. (15)

EAST REGIONAL (Boston, MA Thur/Sat)

Pittsburgh, PA - Thur/Sat

(1) Syracuse (29-1) vs. (16)
(8) Purdue (19-10) vs. (9) Virginia (21-7)

Portland, OR - Thur/Sat

(5) Florida (22-7) vs. (12) Long Beach State (19-7)
(4) Temple (22-6) vs. (13)

Pittsburgh, PA - Thur/Sat

(6) Louisville (22-7) vs. (11) Harvard (23-4)
(3) Ohio State (23-6) vs. (14)

Omaha, NE - Fri/Sun

(7) New Mexico (21-6) vs. (10) California (23-7)
(2) Missouri (25-4) vs. (15)

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO - Fri/Sun)

Greensboro, NC - Fri/Sun

(1) Duke (25-4) vs. (16)
(8) Iowa State (21-8) vs. (9) Connecticut (17-11)

Portland, OR - Thur/Sat

(5) Wichita State (25-4) vs. (12) Drexel (25-5)
(4) Indiana (22-7) vs. (13)

Louisville, KY - Thur/Sat

(6) Murray State (25-1) vs. (11) Xavier (18-10)
(3) Michigan (20-8) vs. (14)

Omaha, NE - Fri/Sun

(7) San Diego State (20-6) vs (10) South Florida (17-11)
(2) Kansas (24-5) vs. (15)

Bids By Conference

Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
ACC: 5
SEC, MWC: 4 each
A-10, WCC: 3 each
C-USA, MVC, Pac-12: 2 each
Big W, Colonial, Ivy, OVC: 1 each

One bid: 16
Party Crashers/Additional At Large: 2

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or teams are in should be out, let me hear from you!
Category: NCAAB
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com