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Tag:Oklahoma State
Posted on: December 4, 2011 10:30 am
 

Schmolik BCS Bowl Projections (Sun. Dec. 4 AM)

Hello, college football fans!

This year's final BCS bowl projections unfortunately is like a close presidential race - too close to call. We pretty much have to wait for the final BCS rankings to determine not only who will get into the BCS title game but who will get into BCS bowls period.

The big question is who will be ranked #2 behind LSU. Will it be Alabama and the title game will be a rematch or will it be Oklahoma State who made a big statement beating Oklahoma badly in Bedlam?

But lesser questions deal with BCS selections which are based on the now unknown BCS rankings:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/sto
ry?id=4819597


The highest ranked non-AQ league champion is guaranteed a spot if they are in the top 12 of the BCS or top 16 and higher than the lowest ranked AQ-league champion. Since the Big Least champion is almost certainly going to be below 16, use the top 16 as the cutoff.

Houston would have received the spot but they lost, costing them a bid. Boise State is not a conference champion so they do not qualify under this rule. TCU is currently #18. They would have to jump two places to secure an automatic bid. If not, no one gets it.

To be eligible for a BCS bowl, a team must be ranked in the top 14. Right now, Michigan is 16th. They would have to jump two places as well.

My base projections will be based upon:

1. Alabama being ranked #2.
2. TCU gaining an automatic bid (top 16).
2. Michigan becoming BCS eligible (top 14).

National Championship: LSU (#1. SEC) vs. Alabama (#2)

Rose Bowl: Oregon (Pac-12) vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
Sugar Bowl: Michigan (At Large Choice 1) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC) vs. TCU (Non AQ Automatic)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12) vs. Stanford (At Large Choice 2)

I think the Sugar Bowl will choose West Virginia over TCU since their fans seem to travel well and they have more national appeal than TCU although TCU is closer to New Orleans.

If either TCU or Michigan does not qualify, it will be between Kansas State and Boise State for one bid. If neither TCU nor Michigan qualify, both will make it by default. Virginia Tech should be eligible but an unlikely choice after they got pounded. The Orange Bowl would never take them and the Fiesta Bowl is way too far.

Should Oklahoma State jump Alabama...

Alabama goes to the Sugar Bowl instead of Michigan.

The Fiesta gets a pick to replace Oklahoma State and the next choice out of the BCS pool. I see that being Stanford vs. Michigan, assuming they are eligible. Should Michigan not be eligible, it will be interesting if they take Boise State again (they've been there twice since the Statue of Liberty play) or take Kansas State.

Assuming West Virginia goes to the Sugar Bowl, Michigan gets in and TCU does not, the Orange Bowl will have to choose between Boise State or Kansas State. Both are way too far away. Boise State is probably the more nationally known program and it will appease the people who think the BCS is exclusive towards the BCS conferences.

Remember the pick order this year:

Sugar (to replace LSU)
Fiesta (IF they have to replace Oklahoma State)

Fiesta
Sugar
Orange

Assuming my BCS projections are true, here is possibly how some of the other BCS bowls could shake out:

Cotton: Arkansas vs. Kansas State (Oklahoma's big loss probably means Kansas State will be chosen, assuming KSU doesn't make the BCS. I think Arkansas feels more at home with the Cotton than the Capital One)

Capital One: South Carolina vs. Nebraska (Michigan State was in last year's Capital One Bowl. Nebraska may be too far away from Orlando but the other choices would be the scandal filled Penn State and Ohio State (who is 6-6) teams).

Outback: Georgia vs. Michigan State. Possibly Georgia and South Carolina could flip flop.

Chick Fil A: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn (Maybe Florida State instead of Virginia Tech, maybe Florida instead of Auburn, but of course Florida/Florida State won't happen).

Gator: Florida vs. Ohio State (The future Urban Meyer Bowl has been rumored for the past week. The catch is that the Insight Bowl gets to pick the Big Ten ahead of the Gator even though the Gator is a far better bowl.)

Category: NCAAF
Posted on: November 26, 2011 11:13 pm
 

Schmolik BCS Bowl Projections Nov. 26 (night)

Hello, college football fans!

I still think there is a chance that Oklahoma State will jump Alabama next week to gain a spot against likely opponent LSU in the BCS championship. But this week, I will play what if and list two scenarios (Oklahoma State in the title game and Alabama in the title game)...

If LSU plays Oklahoma State in the title game:

Rose: Big Ten (Michigan State/Wisconsin winner) vs. Pac-12 (Oregon/UCLA winner)
Orange: ACC (Clemson/Virginia Tech winner)

Sugar: Replaces LSU with Alabama
Fiesta: Replaces Oklahoma State with Stanford

Fiesta: Picks Michigan
Sugar: Picks Houston (pending win in C-USA Championship)
Orange: Is stuck with the Big Least Champ (West Virginia, Louisville, or Cincinnati): Click here for scenarios:

If LSU plays Alabama in the title game:

Fiesta: Big 12 Champ (Oklahoma State/Oklahoma winner)
Rose: Big Ten (Michigan State/Wisconsin winner) vs. Pac-12 (Oregon/UCLA winner)
Orange: ACC (Clemson/Virginia Tech winner)

Sugar: Replaces LSU with Michigan

Fiesta: Picks Stanford
Sugar: Picks Houston (pending win in C-USA Championship)
Orange: Is stuck with the Big Least Champ

West Virginia could be chosen ahead of Houston in the Sugar Bowl if they are the Big East champion.

Stanford looks destined for the Fiesta Bowl. The only way Stanford doesn't is if LSU and Alabama make the national championship and the Sugar Bowl decides to choose Stanford ahead of Michigan.

Michigan's BCS fate probably depends on who plays for the championship.

They are rooting for Alabama and LSU to make the title game so they can play in the Sugar Bowl instead of getting stuck with the Fiesta Bowl.

On the other hand, there is a small chance that if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma that the Sugar Bowl can use Oklahoma State over Michigan and Michigan can wind up completely out of the BCS.

Posted on: November 20, 2011 8:10 am
 

Schmolik BCS Bowl Projections Nov. 20

Hello, college football fans!

That was some weekend in college football! Four of the top seven ranked teams in the BCS lost.

The interesting thing about everyone losing is assuming everything goes to plan (which of course means it won't), here's who I have in the championship game...

LSU vs. Oklahoma State

Yes, the same as last week.

I think the voters will do a repeat of the Michigan/Florida situation in 2006-07. I think Alabama will be #2 when the polls come out today. In fact, I see the top three in the polls being 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, and 3) Arkansas. Of the remaining teams, Oklahoma State has to be ranked fourth. Well, next weekend's Arkansas/LSU game will knock the loser out of the top 3. So, assuming LSU wins, Oklahoma State moves up to 3. If Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, I can see the voters switching Oklahoma State and Alabama in the final poll. There will clearly be backlash at an LSU/Alabama game and Oklahoma State's loss was a road loss in overtime the week after two of their women's basketball coaches died in a plane crash. I think those two considerations might give the pollsters a reason to switch to the Cowboys, especially if Oklahoma State wins convincingly.

At least we know Oregon, Oklahoma, and Clemson won't be playing in the BCS title game with two losses now. Stanford probably will not give a chance at the title game unless Oregon loses one of their last two games (both their game with Oregon State and the Pac-12 championship would be in Eugene, although so was last night's game). Could you imagine if Boise State had won last week?

Projections:

National Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Houston
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan

Conference Champions:

SEC: LSU - Two wins from a national championship.

Should Arkansas win, Alabama will go to the SEC Championship game if it beats Auburn. In a three way tie, it goes to the BCS rankings except if the second ranked team is within five places of the highest ranked team and beats the first head to head, they go. I assume in a three way tie, LSU will be the lowest ranked of the three. Even if Arkansas jumps Alabama, they won't be five places ahead. Alabama beat Arkansas. Advantage Alabama. I would love to see if Arkansas gets ranked #1 in the BCS but can't even play in its conference championship!

Big 12: Oklahoma State - Only need a home game vs. Oklahoma to clinch.

If Oklahoma wins out, they will win the Big 12 bid to the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would be tied and Ok State would have the tiebreaker. Even if Kansas State wins its last game, they lost to both Oklahoma schools. Kansas State cannot make the Fiesta as the Big 12 champion because they will at best be tied with Oklahoma State.

Big Ten: Wisconsin

Michigan State is in the championship game from the Legends Division. Whoever wins Penn State at Wisconsin wins the Leaders Division. I still have Wisconsin winning out.

Pac-12: Oregon

Oregon can still clinch the Pac-12 North and host the Pac-12 champion if they beat Oregon State in the Civil War.

As for the South, UCLA clinches it if they win at USC (unlikely). Should Arizona State and Utah win and UCLA lose to USC, there will be a three way tie for the South spot (USC is ineligible) and a three way head to head split. Next up comes divisional record. UCLA would be 2-3 while Utah and Arizona State would be 3-2. Arizona State would get the spot with a head to head win over Utah. Should ASU lose and Utah and UCLA tie, Utah will play in the title game.

ACC: Clemson

Despite Clemson's loss, I still have Clemson winning the ACC Championship. They will definitely be favored vs. Virginia and if it's a Virginia Tech rematch, Clemson still won 23-3 in Blacksburg. I can guess the Orange Bowl committee will be cheering hard for Clemson so they don't have to have Virginia Tech play there for the fourth time in five years. Clemson's last Orange Bowl appearance was 1981, the year they won the national championship.

Big East: Again, don't ask! Especially with Cincinnati losing and five teams with two losses. Maybe next week I will predict who will win the Big East (and will probably be wrong).

As for my BCS selections, the only change I have is Michigan taking the spot over Oklahoma.

I say an 11-1 Stanford team that doesn't go to the Rose Bowl is a guaranteed pick for the Fiesta Bowl. 

Should Oklahoma lose, they will have three losses and without Ryan Broyles and will presumably be out. Other possibilities would be Kansas State if they win out, Virginia Tech if they lose to Clemson in the ACC, Boise State (would be an at large pick, not an automatic), or potentially unbeaten Houston. Of these, I would think Michigan would be the biggest draw nationally although Kansas State is a lot closer to Arizona. Even if the Fiesta chooses Houston, the Sugar Bowl almost certainly would take Michigan (if they beat Ohio State) against Alabama. We could get two Big 10/Pac-12 matchups on Jan. 2nd.

Ironically with four losses in the top seven BCS ranked teams, there was only one change in my bowl projections. Go figure.

 
Category: NCAAF
Posted on: November 13, 2011 7:33 am
Edited on: November 14, 2011 6:39 am
 

Schmolik BCS Bowl Projections: Nov. 13

Hello, college football fans!

Current BCS Bowl Projections:

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Houston

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Big East Champ (No one outside the Big East cares, the only team in the Big East that cares is probably West Virginia)

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma

National Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma State

Rationale:

LSU should easily be favored to win all their games and make the BCS championship game.

Oklahoma State still has Bedlam but the game is in Stillwater and Oklahoma State pounded a Texas Tech team in Lubbock who had beaten Oklahoma in Norman.

Oregon can win the Pac-12 North by winning one of their two games, both at home. They would then host the Pac-12 championship game and would most likely be favored against the Pac-12 South champion.

Penn State can win the Big Ten Leaders by winning out but no one believes they will. Wisconsin has to travel to Illinois (who looked pathetic vs. Michigan) and then host Penn State. Those two wins give the Badgers the Leaders Division. Michigan State or Nebraska will represent the Legends Division, but Wisconsin should be favored over both.

Clemson is already in the ACC Championship and their most likely opponent is a Virginia Tech team they spanked in Blacksburg.

Don't even ask me about the Big East.

With Boise State's loss, Houston is now the highest rated non AQ and should get the non AQ slot if they run the tables. Clearly they are the biggest winner of yesterday's Boise State loss and they have their former conference mate TCU to thank for it.

Alabama should still be in the top four in the BCS standings unless they lose another game. Even if they are not, the Sugar will of course take the Tide as their replacement pick for LSU anyway.

The biggest winner in Oregon's upset over Stanford? The Fiesta Bowl. Assuming the Cardinal win out but do not win the Pac-12, they will be by far the most attractive at large candidate. After the Sugar Bowl replaces LSU with Alabama, the Fiesta Bowl then has to replace Oklahoma State and then get the next pick. Stanford and Oklahoma should be the picks, especially since both are west of the Mississippi River.

I can see the Sugar Bowl (next pick) possibly choosing West Virginia over Houston. Anyone else and it's Keenum's boys. The Orange Bowl gets stuck with whoever is left.

 

Category: NCAAF
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com